000 AXNT20 KNHC 280830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W then continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 26N and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on a gale warning over the SW Gulf. A squall line is ongoing in the NE Gulf, with numerous strong and isolated severe thunderstorms from 26N to 30N, between the coast of Florida and 88W. A stationary front extends across the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 90W, with light to gentle winds west of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 90W, and 2-4 ft west of 90W. Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. Visibility may be restricted over these waters. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche today. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean as well as just off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening, where it will stall and dissipate on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N22W to 20N41W. An area of high pressure is centered near 26N50W, with another area of high pressure centered near 24N23W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found off the coast of N Florida. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 8-9 ft area found N of 29N between 35W and 48W, with seas of 5-6 ft prevailing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida through Sat. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front beginning on Sun to the N of 25N. $$ AL