000 AXNT20 KNHC 271651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are observed south of 04N and west of 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front is draped just north of the NE Gulf coast to a 1010 mb low pressure over SE Louisiana and a cold front extends southwestward over the NW Gulf to southern Texas. Numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are found within 90 nm ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 27N. The strongest storms are producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours, which may reduce visibility below 1 nm. Mariners are asked to use caution. No deep convection is present in the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted in the eastern half of the Gulf, especially between 85W and 93W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Satellite imagery depict smoke and haze over the Gulf of Honduras and the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends weakly across Florida and into the eastern Gulf this morning. A stationary front along the N Gulf coasts has drifted SE across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters, and will shift slowly SE and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-central Gulf Sat afternoon, then move eastward through early next week. This will result in fresh to strong NW winds, reaching locally near gale-force, across the western Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front early next week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly west of 84W, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 26N62W to near the northern coast of Hispaniola. Divergence aloft is generating showers north of 23N and between 55W and 64W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the waters west of 55W. Farther east, a weak cold front extends from 31N23W to 23N32W, where it transitions into a stationary front to 19N44W. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data north of 27N and between 28W and 53W. Northwesterly swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad weak subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, an inverted surface trough along 67W and N of 22N is interrupting Atlantic high pressure this morning. The trough will drift E and gradually dissipate through tonight. High pressure will then build modestly westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds and slightly higher seas will develop east of northern Florida today through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas ahead of the front to the N of 25N. $$ DELGADO/COLLADO