925 AXNT20 KNHC 270352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W, crosses the equator at 25W, and continues to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 10N between 16W and 23W, and from the equator to 04N between 05W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate convection dots the waters within 180 nm of South America between 42W and 64W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the southern Gulf States along 31N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 27N to 29N between 86W and 90W. West of 88W, winds are generally moderate from the SE with 2-4 ft seas. East of 88W and north of 26N winds are gentle from the E with 1-3 ft seas. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting a localized area of fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel and north of the Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west- central Gulf Sat afternoon, then move eastward through early next week. This will result in fresh to strong winds, reaching locally near-gale, winds across the western Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf early next week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing mainly gentle easterly winds, except for moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel, and moderate to fresh NE winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1- 3 ft across the basin, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Colombia. Northerly swell of 2-4 ft is propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail across the entire basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed NE of the Bahamas with scattered moderate convection observed along the Florida coast and from 26N to 29N between 69W and 72W. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate out of the east with moderate seas in the western subtropical Atlantic. A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 28N60W, surrounded by light winds which increase to moderate easterlies north of a shearline extending from 19N55W to 24N71W. Winds are gentle south of the shearline. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 19N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front from 29N to 31N between 24W and 27W. Recent scatterometer passes confirm westerly winds are moderate to fresh behind the front, with moderate SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 6-9 ft behind the front and 5-7 ft ahead of the front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 20N29W. This feature is bringing light to gentle anticyclonic flow to the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE trade winds prevail south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the area through the upcoming weekend. Fresh southerly winds and slightly higher seas will develop east of northern Florida Fri through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate a large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W Fri evening through Sat. Looking ahead, strong cold front is is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of 25N. $$ Flynn