000 AXNT20 KNHC 262255 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 05N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator at 32W then to near 02S44W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection prevails S of 07N and E of 22W, and from 02N-05S between 22W-42W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection dots the waters within 180 nm of South America between 42W and 64W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is currently across the southern Gulf States along about 31N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail over most of the Gulf, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2-4 ft, except for seas to 5 ft offshore the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. A middle to upper level trough across the Atlantic along 80W is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection across central portions from 24N to 28.5N between 82W and 90W. For the forecast, winds near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to strong at night through Sat night. The front should lift northward as a warm front starting Thu afternoon, which will cause moderate to fresh winds at the central Gulf thru Fri afternoon. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-central Gulf on Sat, then move eastward thru early next week. This will bring fresh to strong with locally near-gale westerly winds across the western Gulf this weekend, and fresh to strong southerly winds to the eastern Gulf early next week. Seas will build 8 to 11 ft behind the cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing mainly light to gentle easterly winds, except for moderate to fresh east- southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh northeast winds are just offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin, except for 3-4 ft offshore of Colombia, and 4-5 ft across the outer waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Small northerly swell around 3 ft ins moving from the Atlantic through the Mona and NE Caribbean Passages. A surface trough is analyzed along 63W and S of 18N. Satellite imagery depicts scattered to locally broken clouds along with high clouds that are streaming northeastward S of 17N and E of about 68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring E of the trough. The trough will slowly move west- northwest through Thursday while it weakens. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the Yucatan Channel tonight, and then linger through Sat. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected offshore Colombia through this weekend. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is E of the Florida Peninsula, extending from the NW Bahamas to near 29N77W. The current pressure gradient is allowing for moderate east to N of the trough and gentle to moderate southeast winds west of 70W. Seas over this area are 3-5 ft in NE swell. A middle to upper level trough across the Atlantic along 80W is supporting clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection N of 25N between 65W and 80W. Farther east, a stationary front stretches from near 31N27W southwestward to 21N48W, where it becomes a shearline to 24N73W. Morning satellite wind data showed moderate to fresh west to northwest winds to the NW of the front, while moderate southwest winds were within 120 nm southeast of the front. Northwest to north swell reaches into the region to near 20N, producing seas of 6-10 ft between 40W and 70W. A weak 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28N57W. The pressure gradient to the south is producing a swath of mostly moderate east winds occurring within 150 nm N of the shearline between 58W and 72W. Seas with these winds are 6-7 ft. Gentle northeast to east winds are south of the shearline between 50W and the southeastern Bahamas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, with a weak 1016 mb high center southeast of the stationary front near 21.5N29W. The associated gradient is bringing a light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow to the southeast of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate NE trade winds prevail S of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft are noted across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high should dominate the western Atlantic through Fri morning. A cold front exiting the US southeast coast will induce fresh southerly winds and building seas east of northern Florida Fri through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will also cause fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas in large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W Fri evening through Sat afternoon. $$ Stripling