000 AXNT20 KNHC 261717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 03N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator and near 40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 12N and E of 20W, and from 02N-05S between 21W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is currently across the southern Gulf States along 31N. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail over the northern Gulf as indicated by latest ASCAT data. Light to gentle east to southeast winds are over the remainder of the Gulf, except for gentle to moderate southeast winds just off the norther tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft, except for lower seas of 2-4 ft in the SW and southeastern Gulf and the central Gulf. Slightly lower seas of 1-3 ft are in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, winds near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to strong at night through Sat night. The front should lift northward as a warm front starting Thu afternoon, which will cause moderate to fresh winds at the central Gulf thru Fri afternoon. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-central Gulf on Sat, then move eastward thru early next week. This will bring fresh to strong with locally near-gale westerly winds across the western Gulf this weekend, and fresh to strong southerly winds to the eastern Gulf early next week. Seas will range from moderate to rough during the cold front passage. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing light to gentle easterly winds, except for moderate east-southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are right offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin, except for 3-4 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W-76W and north of 15N between 64W-72W. A small northerly swell is sending seas of 3-4 ft from the Atlantic through the Mona and Anegada Passages. A surface trough is analyzed along 62W and S of 18N. Satellite imagery depicts scattered to locally broken clouds along with high clouds that are streaming northeastward S of 17N and E of about 68W. Scattered showers are possible within this area. The trough will slowly move west-northwest through Thursday while it weakens. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the Yucatan Channel tonight, and then linger through Sat. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected offshore Colombia through this weekend. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail across the entire basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed over the Florida Peninsula along 81W. The current pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds west of 60W, with light anticyclonic winds north of 27N between 56W-70W. Seas over this area are 3-5 ft. A swath of mostly moderate east winds is present from 22N to 24N between 57W-75W. Seas with these winds are 5-6 ft. Gentle northeast to east winds are south of 22N between 50W and the southeastern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft due to a north swell. Farther east, a stationary front stretches from near 31N27W southwestward to 21N48W, where it becomes a shearline to 24N71W. Per latest ASCAT data passes, moderate to fresh west to northwest winds are northwest of the front, while moderate southwest winds are within 120 nm southeast of the front. Northwest to north swell reaches into the northern part of the area to near 28N and between 35W-55W. Seas produced by this swell are 8-10 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, with a weak 1017 mb high center southeast of the stationary front near 22N29W. The associated gradient is bringing a light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow to the southeast of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate NE trade winds prevail S of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft are noted across this area. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high should dominate the western Atlantic through Fri morning. A cold front exiting the US southeast coast will cause fresh southerly winds and building seas east of northern Florida Fri through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will also cause fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas in large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W Fri evening through Sat afternoon. $$ ERA