000 AXNT20 KNHC 260358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the equator at 38W. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and near the coast of Africa from 01N to 10N between 09W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure over the southern US and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate easterly winds in the NE Gulf with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night through Fri night. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west- central Gulf and in the far SW Gulf late Sat into Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally light to gentle easterly winds, except for moderate easterlies in the Gulf of Honduras fresh NE winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin, except for 3-4 along the coast of NW Colombia. 3-4 ft northerly swell from the Atlantic is propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras Wed night into early this weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds are forecast for offshore Colombia pulsing nightly Wed into this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds increase afterwards across most of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the western subtropical Atlantic extending from 31N77W to N Florida near 31N81W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 30N77W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the trough is observed from 25N to 28N between 77W and 80W. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate from the east with 3-5 ft seas in the area. A 1020 mb high is analyzed east of the front, centered near 30N64W. Winds are gentle near the high, gradually increasing to moderate easterlies north of a shearline along 22N. Winds are gentle south of the shearline. Seas are generally 5-7 ft between 60W and 75W. A stationary front persists in the east-central Atlantic from 31N30W to 21N52W. Northwest of the front winds are moderate to fresh from the W-NW, with stronger winds in the Ocean Prediction Center area north of 31N. Southeast of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW. Large northerly swell generated across the North Atlantic continues to build, producing seas of 6-10 ft north of 20N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of about 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak stationary front that extends from offshore northeast Florida to inland northern Florida will lift northward as warm front on Wed. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. Finally, a strengthening low pressure over the central Atlantic will produce fresh to strong winds in our northeast waters Fri into Sat. Seas will build to near 14 ft by Sat. $$ Flynn