000 AXNT20 KNHC 252257 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 04.5N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the NE coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted off Africa to the S of 06.5N between 05W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 06N between 42W and coastal zones of the Amazon River Basin, and S of 12N between 58W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front has sagged southward this afternoon, and extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N91W to SE Texas. along 28N. A low level trough persists across SW portions from the upper Mexican coast to near Veracruz, Mexico. Another trough is located over the Bay of Campeche along the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is occurring with these troughs. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the north of producing a zone of moderate ESE winds along the boundary to the W of 91W. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, winds are less than 15 kt, with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will change little tonight, then lift north of the area as a warm front Wed. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night through Thu night. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale- force in the far west-central Gulf and in the far SW Gulf late Sat into Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 2 to 3 ft across the basin, except for 3-4 along the coast of NW Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras Wed night into early this weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are forecast for offshore Colombia pulsing nightly Wed into this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds increase Fri into the weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the western Atlantic extending from near 31N79W to N Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection has developed between the front and 27N between 74W and coastal counties of central Florida. A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed to the east of the front near 29.5N67W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 50W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the waters west of 70W. Seas W of 70W are 4 to 5 ft in NE swell. To the E, a dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N30W to near 21N52W, then continues as a dissipating shearline to near 24N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident within 270 nm east of the front mainly N of 23N. Fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-8 ft are east of the front E of 40W. A 90 to 120 nm wide band of fresh easterly winds persists N of the shearline between 55W and 72W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NW winds are found N of 26N between the front and 55W. Large northerly swell generated across the North Atlantic continues to build across the regional waters, producing seas of 6 to 9 ft to the N of 20N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of about 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic frontal boundary is forecast to lift northward in the next few days as a warm front. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. Finally, a strengthening low pressure over the central Atlantic will produce fresh to strong winds in the NE offshore waters Fri into Sat. Seas will build to near 14 ft by Sat. $$ Stripling