000 AXNT20 KNHC 251659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 02N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-07N and E of 25W, while scattered moderate convection prevails S of 04N and W of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends along 28N. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front over Central Florida. Another trough is located over the Bay of Campeche along 92W. No significant convection is occurring with these troughs. Latest ASCAT data pass depicts fresh northeast winds over the northern Gulf as well as over the northern part of the central Gulf, or roughly north of 25N and east of 95W. Winds elsewhere west of 90W are gentle to moderate and northeast in direction. Light and variable winds are south of 25N and east of 90W. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf due to a longer fetch there. Seas elsewhere are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will change little today, then transition to a warm front on Wed and lift north of the area. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night through Thu night. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north- central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale- force in the far west-central Gulf Sat and in the far SW Gulf late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally slight across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras Wed into early this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds increase afterwards across most of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the western Atlantic extending from near 31N79W to 30N81W. Areas of rain are present in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 27N west of 70W. A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed to the east of the front near 30N67W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 50W. Gentle to moderate east winds are over the waters west of 55W, except for a swath of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds located form 22N to 25N between 53W-68W. Seas over these waters are 4-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft N of 25N between 39W-56W. To the E, a stationary front extends from near 31N31W to 22N45W, where it transitions to a trough that continues to 21N55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident within 300 nm east of the front mainly N of 23N. Fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-8 ft are east of the front and trough. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of about 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the W Atlantic frontal boundary is forecast to lift northward in the next few days as a warm front. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late this week in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat. A strengthening low pressure over the central Atlantic will produce fresh to strong winds in our northeast waters Fri into Sat. Seas will build to 14 ft by Sat. $$ ERA