000 AXNT20 KNHC 251024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator at 44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from 02N to 07N between 10W-14W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 16W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-35W, and also north of the ITCZ to 05N between 35W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends along the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big Bend area to 29N90W and to just east of Corpus Christi, Texas. A trough is analyzed from near 26N85W to 24N90W and to 21N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving eastward are over the eastern Gulf east of a trough that extends from near 27N84W to 22N85W. This activity reaches some locations of South Florida. Another trough is analyzed from 26N96W to 21N93W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. A recent ASCAT data pass shows mostly fresh northeast to east winds over the northern Gulf as well as over the northern part of the central Gulf, or roughly north of 25N and east of 95W. Winds elsewhere west of 90W are gentle to moderate and north to northeast in direction. Light and variable winds are south of 25N and east of 90W. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 5-8 ft in the NW Gulf due to a longer fetch there. The maximum of 8 ft seas is confined along 26N between 91W-93W. Seas elsewhere are 2-4 ft elsewhere except for higher seas of 5-7 ft due to a north to northeast swell are over the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate over the next day. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night on Wed and Thu. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west-central Gulf Sat and in the far SW Gulf late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally slight with moderate heights of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will expand northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel starting tonight. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras Wed into early this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through Thu. Trade winds increase afterward over most of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is over the western Atlantic extending from near 31N71W to 28N79W. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 27N west of 73W. A weak 1017 mb high center is analyzed to the east of the front near 31N63W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 46W. Gentle to moderate east winds are over the waters west of 55W, except for a swath of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds located form 22N to 25N between 53W-68W. Seas over these waters are 4-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft from 22N to 25N between 53W-68W. Well to the southeast of the front over the central and eastern Atlantic a cold front extends from near 31N32W to 26N39W and to 23N45W, where it transitions to a trough that continues to 21N53W and to near 19N60W. Areas of rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident east of the cold front and trough to a line from near 31N26W to 22N34W. Fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-8 ft are east of the front and trough. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of about 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front will slowly move southeastward through Wed while it dissipates. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late this week as a warm front lifts northward east of northern Florida in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. $$ Aguirre