000 AXNT20 KNHC 250357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues to the equator at 44W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 06N between 10W and 15W, and within 90 nm of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends along the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big Bend area to near Corpus Christi, Texas. In the central Gulf, a 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 25N89W with a surface trough extending NE and SW. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the eastern Gulf from 24N to 26N between 84W and 88W. In the northern Gulf, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf due to longer fetch. Winds are gentle to moderate in the southern Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft in the SE Gulf and 4-6 ft in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate over the next day. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night on Wed and Thu. A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf on Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected ahead of it over the north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west-central Gulf Sat and in the far SW Gulf late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... An atypical weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally slight with moderate heights of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras Wed into early this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from near 31N72W to 29N80W. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 150 nm of the frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas are observed along the Florida coast. Southeast of the frontal boundary a surface trough extends across the central Atlantic from 30N35W to 21N50W to 22N62W. North of the trough, easterly winds are moderate with 6- 8 ft seas. East of the trough, SW winds are fresh with 7-9 ft seas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, The weak stationary front is likely to sag southeastward through Wed while slowly dissipating. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late this week as a warm front lifts northward east of northern Florida in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat and Sat night. $$ Flynn