000
AXNT20 KNHC 241619
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea 
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 04N19W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N23W to 01N34W to 
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of a 
line from 04N17W to 08N38W to 09N55W. 

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Big Bend area of 
Florida to off southern Texas. No significant convection is 
noted with the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, two lows are 
analyzed over the western part of the basin. The first low is 
analyzed near 25N92 and is not producing any notable convection, 
while the second low is located near Veracruz, Mexico and is 
producing a large complex of numerous strong thunderstorms over 
the Bay of Campeche that is moving quickly eastward. While 
lightning activity has decreased with these thunderstorms, 
mariners navigating through the impacted waters are urged to use 
caution. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are found in the western Gulf, and up 
to 10 ft near the low centers. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the 
gradient generally supports seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the abovementioned frontal boundary is 
expected to dissipate later today. Fresh to strong E winds along 
and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will diminish 
by early this afternoon, then redevelop Wed night. Another 
frontal boundary will enter the NW Gulf late 
this week but no appreciable increase in winds or seas is 
forecast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An atypical weak pressure pattern across the basin is bringing 
generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas remain rather 
low throughout, in the 2 to 4 ft range. Higher seas of 4 to 6 ft 
are in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will develop in and
near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of 
Honduras beginning Wed. Seas will build to 7 ft Thu and Fri. 
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters 
will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the 
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from near 31N74W to just east of 
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Outside of some light showers, no 
significant winds or seas are associated with this boundary. To 
the southeast of the frontal boundary, a broad surface trough 
extends from.a weak 1011 mb low pressure east of the Bahamas 
near 23N55W to north of the Greater Antilles near 21N75W. No 
significant convection is occurring with the trough. A recent 
ASCAT pass reveals moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the 
trough from 24N to 27N and between 54W and 71W. Light to gentle 
mostly E winds are elsewhere north of the trough. Seas of 5 to 7 
ft are found north of 24N between 55W and 70W, while seas of 3 
to 5 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W.

Further east, another trough is analyzed from 31N33W to near 
23N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of 
the trough from 31N to 23N between 28W and 47W. A scatterometer 
pass earlier this morning reveals moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds east of the trough to 36W and north of 24N and moderate to 
fresh W winds behind the trough to 50W and north of 28N. Seas 
north of 23N between 25W to 55W are 8 to 11 ft in NW to N swell. 
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing gentle to 
moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W,  the aforementioned stationary 
front will begin to slowly move southeastward as a cold front 
reaching from near 
31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida this afternoon where it will stall.
The frontal boundary will then weaken through late Mon and 
dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally strong S winds 
are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late 
Thu as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out boundary 
offshore the Georgia southeast coast.

$$
Nepaul