000 AXNT20 KNHC 241034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 02N21W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N34W to 03N42W and to 05N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-41W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 45W-51W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-52W, and also northwest of the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between 51W-57W. A cluster of scattered moderate convection has emerged off the coast of Africa, and is noted from 03N to 05N between 08W-12W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches from the coast of central Louisiana to the tip of southern Texas and to inland northeastern Mexico. A cold front continues eastward from eastern Louisiana to near Panama City, FL. No significant precipitation noted with these frontal boundaries. Meanwhile, a rather potent squall line is analyzed from near 27N90W to 22N94W. It is racing eastward. A large complex of numerous strong thunderstorms is racing eastward along and ahead of the squall line from 22N to 29N between 85W-90W. The thunderstorms are accompanied by frequent lighting, strong wind gusts reaching to gale-force at times and heavy rainfall reducing visibility. An overnight ASCAT data pass captured strong to gale-force north to northeast winds near the thunderstorm activity, roughly from 24N to 26N between 94W-96W. These winds were transfered down to the surface by the thunderstorm activity as very strong jet stream winds exist aloft. Mariners navigating through the impacted waters are urged to use caution. Seas in the NW Gulf are 6-9 ft, except from 25N to 27N between 94W and 96W, where seas quickly rose to the range of 10-17 ft as the thunderstorms and associated winds impacted this part of the area during the evening and in the overnight hours. Buoy 42020 located just east of the southern Texas coast at 27N97W is reporting seas to 9 ft. A cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the gradient generally supports seas of 3-5 ft, except for higher seas of 7-10 ft over the west-central Gulf per an altimeter data pass over that part of the Gulf, 4-6 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf and 5-7 ft offshore southwestern Louisiana and also over the central Gulf. in For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from northern Florida to western Gulf this morning. The squall line and complex of strong to severe thunderstorms will weaken as it moves from the central Gulf to the eastern Gulf by early this afternoon. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula will diminish by early this afternoon, then redevelop Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An atypical weak pressure pattern across the basin is bringing generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas remain rather low throughout, in the 2-4 ft range. Higher seas of 4-6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are over the eastern Caribbean, including near the Windward Islands. For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, the prevailing weak pressure gradient over the basin will maintain relatively quiet marine conditions through at least mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from near 31N75W to just east of Cape Canaveral. No significant winds or seas are associated with this boundary. To the southeast of the frontal boundary, a broad surface trough is located north of the eastern Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas, mainly along 22N. Weak low pressure of 1010 mb is at the east end of the trough. No significant convection is occurring with the trough, however, isolated showers are possible near the low. Overnight ASCAT data passes highlight moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to the north of the trough from 24N to 27N and between 58W-72W. Light to gentle mostly easterly winds are elsewhere north of the trough. Seas in the range of 5-7 ft are north of 25N between 55W-70W and seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere west of 55W, except for lower seas of 2 ft or less within the area of the Bahamas Island and west from to the Straits of Florida. In the eastern part of the area, what was earlier a weakening cold front has transitioned to a trough that is analyzed from near 31N31W to 26N40W and to near 23N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm east and southeast of the trough north of about 25N. An overnight ASCAT data pass detected fresh southwest to west winds east of the trough to near 29N and north of 24N. Seas over these waters are 8-11 ft in northwest to north swell. Seas of 8-10 ft also due to northwest to north swell are west of the trough to near 55W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, with its related gradient allowing for gentle to moderate southerly winds, except for gentle to moderate trade winds south of 13N and east of the Leeward Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will begin to slowly move southeastward as a cold front reaching from near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida this morning where it will stall. The frontal boundary will then weaken through late Mon and dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late Thu as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out boundary offshore the Georgia southeast coast. $$ Aguirre