000 AXNT20 KNHC 240559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N40W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ west of 35W. Similar convection is also observed within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front that recently entered the NW Gulf of Mexico has stalled, stretching from the coast of central Louisiana to the tip of southern Texas. A cold front continues eastward from eastern Louisiana to near Panama City, FL. No significant precipitation is along this boundary. Ahead of this front, a vigorous squall line with winds gusting to near gale force, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning is racing SE across the Gulf. A large complex of strong to severe numerous thunderstorms is currently affecting the area from 22N to 29N between 88W and 93W. A recent scatterometer pass noted strong to near gale force NE winds north of 21N and west of 88W. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in the W and NW Gulf. Recent buoy observations recorded seas up to 10 ft with the strongest winds. Mariners are asked to navigate with caution. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate E-NE winds and seas less than 3 ft are over the NE and far E basin, ahead of the hazardous weather. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken as it reaches from northern Florida to the western Gulf by early Mon. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the NW Gulf will diminish Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern across the basin results in light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate easterly breezes in the Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas are prevalent across the Caribbean waters, except for moderate seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will develop in and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from near 31N75W to just east of Cape Canaveral. No significant winds or seas are associated with this boundary. To the SE, a broad surface trough is located north of the eastern Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas, mainly along 23N. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are on the north side of the axis between 55W and 75W. Seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 25N and west of 60W and 72W. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N32W to 23N55W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm E of the boundary. The latest satellite-derived wind data shows fresh to strong SW-W winds north of 24N and between 30W and 45W. The wave heights in these waters are 7-12 ft, with the highest seas near 30N43W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken through late Mon and dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning Wed as weak low pressure forms along a stalled out boundary offshore the Georgia southeast coast. $$ Mora