000
AXNT20 KNHC 231705
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 03N45W to
11N61W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed 
within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A cold front is approaching the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a
large complex of showers and thunderstorms over southern Texas is
also affecting the nearshore waters. These storms are producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours, reducing the
visibility below 1 nm. Mariners are asked to navigate with
caution. On the eastern Gulf, a weak cold front is draped across 
central Florida, exciting near Cape Coral and extending to 25N85W,
where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front to 
26N91W. No significant convection is associated with this feature.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations 
indicate that moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found in the 
western half of the Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the 
southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak cold front over the eastern Gulf will slowly 
move southeastward through late Mon while weakening. Fresh to 
strong E to SE to E winds are expected through Mon night over most
of the western and central Gulf as the gradient tightens when a 
trough moves offshore Texas and NE Mexico. Wind gusts to near 
gale-force may occur in and near scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are expected over these same areas of the 
Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just 
offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night. 
Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America will continue 
to bring hazy conditions over some sections of the SW Gulf and the
Bay Campeche through early this afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern across the Caribbean Sea results in light
to gentle variable winds, except for moderate easterly breezes in
the Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas are prevalent across the 
Caribbean waters, except for moderate seas in the Gulf of 
Honduras. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting 
the Windward Islands and the extreme SE Caribbean, while no 
significant deep convection is occurring in the rest of the basin.
Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf 
of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and
near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast
coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively
quiet marine conditions through the period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to the Treasure Coast of Florida.
A few showers are seen on satellite imagery ahead of the frontal
boundary, north of the NW Bahamas and west of 75W. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are found behind the boundary, along with
seas of 3-6 ft. A broad surface trough is located north of the
eastern Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to locally NE
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 25N and between 60W
and 72W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail west
of 55W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 25N57W and the
strongest convection is noted east of the boundary and north of
30N. Latest satellite-derived wind data show fresh to strong SW-W
winds north of 24N and between 30W and 53W. The wave heights in
these waters are 7-12 ft, with the highest seas near 31N43W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front offshore NE 
Florida will slowly move southeastward through late Mon and 
dissipate late Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are 
expected to develop offshore northern and central Florida 
beginning Wed as low pressure develops off the southeastern U.S. 
coast.

$$
DELGADO