000 AXNT20 KNHC 231043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-33W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 12W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends central Florida southwestward into the Gulf to near 26N88W. No significant convection is along this boundary. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are north of the front. A partial overnight ASCAT data pass highlighted moderate to fresh northeast to east winds between 89W-94W. Mostly fresh east to southeast winds are west of 94W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere, except for gentle north to northeast winds over the southeastern Gulf. Seas are in the range of 2-4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft over the west-central and NW Gulf areas. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the weak cold front will reach from southwest Florida to near 24N88W this morning. It will continue to slowly move southeastward through late Mon while weakening. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected through Mon night over most of the western and central Gulf as the gradient tightens when a trough moves offshore Texas and NE Mexico. Wind gusts to near gale-force may occur in and near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected over these same areas of the Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America will continue to bring hazy conditions over some sections of the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through early this afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The typical Atlantic high pressure ridging is non-existent for the time. As a result, the gradient is very weak across the basin. Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal light winds over just about the entire basin, except south of 18N and west of 85W including the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are present. Seas across the area are atypically low, in the 2-4 ft range. No significant deep convection is occurring today. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are are quickly advancing east-southeast over the waters east of northern Florida. This activity is noted from 28N to 31N and between 76W-79W. It is preceding a cold front that a few hours ago had moved off the U.S. southeastern coast and extends along a position from 31N78W to inland north-central Florida. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds southeast of the front to near 27N and west of about 75W. Seas are 4-5 ft over this part of the area. Weak low pressure center is centered about 330 nm northeast of Puerto Rico. A trough extends from the low to 24N70W and northwest to 28N74W. The low is allowing for a break in the trade winds south of 25N, and west of 60W. Light and variable winds with calm seas are within the region. North of 25N and west of 60W, fresh east winds are noted, where seas are 5-7 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 28N43W and to 26N56W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds along with seas of 10-12 ft in northwest swell are north of the front. Fresh southwest winds and seas of 8-9 ft in northwest to north swell are east of the front north of about 26N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the front north of 27N. High pressure of 1017 mb is located near 25N27W, with a ridge stretching west- southwestward to near 18N57W as inferred from an ASCAT data pass. It related gradient supports light anticyclonic winds near and around the high center. Seas are 3-5 ft south of the previously mentioned cold front, except for slightly higher seas of 5-6 ft south of about 12N and east of 51W, where gentle to moderate east winds are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak low pressure centered about 330 nm NE of Puerto Rico will drift southward during this morning and dissipate in the afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the low is supporting fresh northeast to east winds between Bermuda and the Bahamas along with seas to 8 ft. These conditions will diminish this morning. A weak cold front offshore NE Florida will slowly move southeastward through late Mon and dissipate late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern and central Florida beginning Wed as low pressure develops off the southeastern U.S. coast. $$ Aguirre