000
AXNT20 KNHC 230601
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W to the coast 
of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
convection is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 15W and 
35W. Similar convection is from -02S to 02N between 32W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A weak cold front extends southwestward about 150 nm offshore SW 
from the Florida Big Bend area, then transitions to a stationary 
front, stretching westward to the NW Gulf. No significant 
precipitation is along this boundary. A scatterometer satellite 
pass indicated moderate to fresh NE to E winds behind the front 
over the northern Gulf. Fresh E to NE winds are also noted in 
the SW Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas.  Gentle to moderate winds 
persist elsewhere, except for light and variable breezes near 
the Yucatan Channel. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural 
fires are present over the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southwest 
Florida to near 25N88W early Sun. It will continue to move 
southeastward through late Mon while weakening. Fresh to strong 
E to SE winds are expected Sun through Mon night over most of 
the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will 
develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula 
at night Sun and Tue. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central 
America will continue to lead to hazy conditions over some 
sections of the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least 
Sun night. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these 
waters. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the area has been disrupted by a 
front moving through the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure 
northeast of the Bahamas. Satellite-derived data and buoy 
observations confirm this pattern is supporting only light 
breezes across the Caribbean, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No 
significant deep convection is occurring today. Areas of haze 
from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean 
waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through 
the period. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front emerged of the SE U.S. coast. A 
line of storms is ahead of the front, producing frequent 
lightning. Thunderstorms are north of 25N. Fresh W-NW winds are 
following the front, with moderate to fresh SE winds ahead of 
the boundary. Seas are near 4 ft. 

A weak low pressure center is located east of the Bahamas along 
a surface trough that stretches from NE of the Bahamas to the 
low near 22N62W. The low is allowing for a break in the trade 
winds south of 25N, and west of 60W. Light and variable winds 
with calm seas are within the region. North of 25N and west of 
60W, fresh east winds are noted, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 
 
Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 27N57W. Fresh 
to strong W to NW winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas in NW swell 
are evident north of the front. Fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft 
seas are noted east of the front, north of 24N. High pressure of 
1017 mb is located near 25N27W, supporting light breezes along 
the ridge axis, which extends towards the Lesser Antilles, with 
3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate breezes are noted south of 10N, where 
seas are up to 6 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure center east of 
the Bahamas will drift southward through Sun morning and 
dissipate early Sun afternoon. The pressure gradient between 
high pressure to the north and the low will support fresh to 
strong winds between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight, with seas 
to 8 ft. Seas will subside late tonight. A weak cold front just 
offshore the southeast U.S coast will reach the waters off 
northeast Florida late tonight, then dissipate north of the 
Bahamas by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to 
develop offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of
next week in advance of low pressure that will track 
northeastward along the southeastern U.S. coast. 

$$
Mora