000 AXNT20 KNHC 221112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10.5N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 01N30W to 01N40W and to he coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Increasing scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A couple of troughs are analyzed over the basin. The first one extends from 26N83W to 23N87W and to inland the northwest section of the Yucatan Peninsula. The second trough extends from just southwest of Pensacola, Florida to 24N92W. No significant convection is noted with either of the troughs. A cold front has entered the NW Gulf. It extends from southeastern Louisiana to inland Texas near Corpus Christi. No convection is evident with this front as the environment ahead of it has become rather dry and stable. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of the front. Otherwise, a weak gradient supports gentle to moderate northeast to east winds over the western Gulf, and light and variable winds over the far eastern part of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are seen over a part of the NE Gulf as inferred from an overnight ASCAT data pass. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 90W and 2-4 ft east of 90W. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over much of the western Gulf south of about 25N. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from the Florida Big region to 26N88W by early this afternoon, and will be dissipating as it reaches from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected Sun through Mon night over most of the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may prolonged the areas of haze over western through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Partial ASCAT data passes and buoy observations indicate mostly light to gentle winds across just about the entire basin, except for moderate to fresh east-southeast winds south of 18N and west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras and for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the far southeastern part of the basin. Areas of haze due to agricultural fires are the waters west of 85W. Seas of 3-5 ft are over the central Caribbean between 70W-80W, with 2-4 ft seas elsewhere except for seas of 2 ft or less over the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is east of the Bahamas extending from 28N65W to inland the western part of the Dominican Republic. The gradient between it and high pressure to its north is sustaining an area of mostly fresh northeast to east winds from 26N to 30N and between 64W-73W. NOAA buoy 41047 at 27.5N71W is currently reporting northeast to east winds of 20 kt along with combined seas of 7 ft. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are east of the trough from 22N to 30N and between 58W-67W. This area of showers and thunderstorms is shifting eastward under the divergent side of a well pronounced mid to upper-level trough that is seen on water vapor imagery roughly from 22N to 31N between 62W-70W. This feature may induce surface low pressure in the near future. Moderate to fresh northeast to east wind are elsewhere north of 26N and west of 65W along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle east to southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft combined seas are elsewhere west of 65W. A cold front is analyzed from 31N42W to 28N46W and to 26N55W. Another cold front that is not too far to its north and northwest is along 31N between 49W-60W. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are west of the first front, while fresh to strong southwest to west winds are ahead of it. Seas are 8-9 ft ahead of the front and peaking to 10 ft behind it. A trough is to the southeast of the first front from 25N48W to 17N53W. No deep convection is being triggered by this trough. In the far eastern Atlantic, displaced weak high pressure of 1016 mb is near 23N55W. Another weak high, this one of 1015 mb, is just north of the area near 32N19W. Gentle to moderate trade winds are south of 15N per overnight partial ASCAT data passes. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are present between these winds and the fresh to strong southwest to west winds related to the cold front previously described. Seas are 5-7 ft south of 15N, and 4-6 ft within the area of the light to gentle winds. For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure is expected to develop this morning east of the Bahamas. It will drift southward through this evening then dissipate. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas through late tonight, with seas building to 8 ft. Seas will subside late tonight. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida late this evening, then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of next week in advance of low pressure that will track northeastward along the southeastern U.S. coast. Seas will subside with these winds. Moderate north swell is forecast to impact the northern waters east of 60W today. The swell will shift east of 55W late Sun into Mon. $$ Aguirre