000 AXNT20 KNHC 211705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to 00N33W, where it is interrupted by a trough extending from 01S34W to 04S33W. The ITCZ restarts near 02S36W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 08W and east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging northeast of the Gulf of Mexico is forcing SE winds across the Gulf that are generally gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft in the central and W Gulf, and 2-3 ft in the E Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong deep convection is occurring north of 26N between 89W-94W in association with an outflow boundary/surface trough that extends from the Louisiana coast near 30N91W to the lower Texas coast 28N97W. Winds and seas are higher near the active thunderstorm activity. The diurnal Yucatan surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 23N91W to 18N96W. For the forecast, high pressure along the southeastern U.S. seaboard will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast to south return flow over the Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight into early Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind the front on Sat. The dissipating front will extend from southwestern Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun through Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough northeast of the Caribbean is weakening the usual north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean. As a result, the trades are only gentle to moderate across the whole Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will weaken today, diminishing trade winds over the Caribbean waters. The weaker pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas extends from 30N69W to 24N71W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 25N-30N between 63W-68W. A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N52W to 27N60W, while a second cold front exists over the E Atlantic from 31N18W to 29N30W. Winds - away any active thunderstorms - are gentle to moderate with these features. Surface ridging off of the Carolinas along with the trough is promoting moderate to fresh E winds north of 27N west of 65W. A 1019 mb high pressure near 24N42W has surface ridging extending to 27N15W to the east and to 25N55W to the west. Between 20N and the ITCZ to the south, the trades are gentle to moderate with winds light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across our Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure is forecast to develop by tonight east of the Bahamas. The low will drift southward through Sun. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through late Sat night, with seas building to about 8 ft. Seas will subside late Sat night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Moderate north swell is forecast to impact the northern waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ Landsea