000 AXNT20 KNHC 210553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 12N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 02N30W, where it intercepts a trough, then continues from 01N36W to 01S45W. A large area of scattered moderate convection is evident from 04S to 10N between 10W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the Carolinas to eastern Texas, allowing for moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin, with locally strong breezes west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the NW Gulf, below 3 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. There may be some limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. For the forecast, high pressure along the southeastern U.S. seaboard will continue to support moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over E Bay of Campeche tonight. A cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Fri night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow behind the front on Sat. By Sun morning, the dissipating front will extend from southwestern Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America result in smoke and haze over the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extending along 75W from eastern Cuba to the central Bahamas is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of the area. This pattern is allowing only light to gentle E breezes over the Caribbean west of 80W, except for moderate to fresh winds funneling close to the coast of Honduras. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean east of 80W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft east of 80W and mostly 2 to 4 ft west of 80W. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will weaken through Fri night. This will allow for fresh northeast to east trade winds over the south-central Caribbean to become light and variable winds and for fresh east trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish slightly. Elsewhere, rather quiet marine conditions can be expected through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough reaching from 31N75W to over the northern Bahamas is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 28N between 65W and 75W. An associated surface trough is analyzed along 75W between eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas. The gradient between the surface trough and the subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas from 20N to 31N west of 65W. A recent satellite scatterometer pass captured locally strong wind gusts in areas of thunderstorm activity. Farther east, ridging centered by 1021 mb high pressure near 27N50W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas south of 15N and light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 15N with northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough along 75W is likely to develop a low pressure center by Fri night east of the Bahamas and drift southward through Sun while weakening. A tight gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the low. This will increase the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas from Fri night through late Sat night, along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft. Seas subside late Sat night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the northern waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ Mora