000 AXNT20 KNHC 201005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 02N27W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed south of 07N and between Africa and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure between the SE United States and Bermuda support moderate to fresh SE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico, with the strongest winds in the southwestern portion of the basin. Seas are 5-8 ft west of 90W and 3-6 ft in the rest of the Gulf. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas to 8 ft near 24N95W. There may be some limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned between the SE United States and Bermuda and lower pressures over Mexico will continue to force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over E Bay of Campeche tonight. Agricultural and seasonal fires over Mexico and Central America result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche. Mariners may experience reduced visibility in these waters. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE winds behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite-derived winds from a few hours ago captured fresh to strong trades over the south-central and southeast Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds offshore NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure system positioned north of the Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N76W. Divergence aloft is producing some showers near this frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted west of the trough. Farther east, the waters are dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure center near 29N50W, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 4-6 ft seas are evident south of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast to dissipate later today. A surface trough is likely to develop by Fri night and persist through Sun east of the Bahamas. The trough should strengthen trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun, allowing for fresh to strong speeds and building seas peaking near 9 ft, before weakening on Mon. A weak cold front should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night, but dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ DELGADO