000 AXNT20 KNHC 191804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 03N25W and 02N33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 41W eastward. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is in the area of the coastal waters between Suriname and Brazil between 48W and 55W. A surface trough was in the same general area 24 hours ago. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from 10N southward between 41W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model shows that a 700 mb trough is digging through Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N northward from 88W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A surface ridge extends from a south central Georgia 1021 mb high pressure center, through central Louisiana, into east Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward from 90W eastward. Mostly fresh and some strong winds are from 90W westward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range mostly from 5 feet to 7 feet from 90W westward. Some 4 foot sea heights are in the coastal waters of Mexico, in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure over the SE United States combined with surface troughing over Mexico will continue to force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over the SW Gulf tonight and Thu night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. By Sun morning, the front will extend from SW Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected behind the front this weekend over the N and central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a trough passes through the Windward Passage, reaching the coast of Panama along 80W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that a trough is passing through the Yucatan Channel, reaching the eastern half of the coast of Honduras. Rainshowers are spread throughout the entire Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are within 200 nm to the north of Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh E to NE winds are from 260 nm on the southern end to 300 nm on the northern end, to the north of Colombia. Moderate wind speeds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh E winds are within 100 nm of the coast of Honduras between 85W and 88W. Moderate or slower E winds are elsewhere from Honduras northward from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet within 200 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 78W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, from 75W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N69W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 26N74W, through the Bahamas near 23N75W, to Cuba near 21N76W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, according to the Pan America Temperatures and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, are: 0.27 in Bermuda. A surface trough is along 29N65W 19N66W. This surface trough has been moving westward during the last 24 hours to 48 hours. This trough is weakening, and it is losing its identity. The trough is between the western edge of the Atlantic Ocean ridge and the 1014 mb low pressure center and stationary front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the line that is from 31N58W, to the eastern half of the Dominican Republic. The sea heights mostly range from 4 feet to 5 feet, with some 3 foot sea heights. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the 1014 mb low pressure center, northeastward, for the next 300 nm or so. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere from 60W westward. One 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. A second 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N56W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 62W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 21N northward from 30W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are to the north of the Canary Islands. The sea heights mostly range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, with some 7 foot sea heights. Strong NE winds are from 14N to 18N between 20W and 25W. Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extends from 31N70W southwestward to a weak 1014 mb low pres near 26N74W, and then extends to SE Cuba. The southern portion of the front should dissipate by Thu, while the northern portion should remain nearly stationary until dissipating by Fri. A surface trough is likely to form by Sat northeast of the Bahamas, strengthening trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun. A weak cold front should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night. Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ mt/cl