000
AXNT20 KNHC 171725
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 13N16W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to
00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
Convection is observed south of 07N between 17W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15Z, a cold front extends from Sanibel, Florida to 23N90W, 
then continues as a stationary front to near Tampico, Mexico. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found 
behind the front, while moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds 
and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found ahead of the front across the 
southeast Gulf and the entrance of the Yucatan Channel. Some smoke
from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be impacting 
portions of the Bay of Campeche outside of light showers.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of 
Florida to northern Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then stall 
across the northwest Bahamas and northern Cuba on Tue before 
dissipating Tue night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
across the eastern Gulf behind the front will linger until early 
this afternoon. Afterward, fresh to strong southeasterly return 
flow should develop over the western Gulf Tue afternoon through 
Thu morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted between Haiti and
eastern Cuba, in the lee of eastern Cuba and south of 12N 
between the Windward Islands and 69W. Gentle to moderate NE to E 
trade winds prevail across the basin, except for locally fresh 
near the coasts of Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Seas 
generally range from 2 to 4 ft in western Caribbean and 4 to 6 
ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, except for the Yucatan 
Channel and Gulf of Honduras, where seas are building up to 7 
ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America may be 
affecting visibility over portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail 
across much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists 
southeast of Bermuda. A weakening cold front over the Gulf of 
Mexico will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then gradually 
dissipate at the far northwestern basin on Tue. Easterly winds are
expected to become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and 
at the Gulf of Honduras Wed and Thu nights.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N78W 
to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring along and ahead of the front, between the east coast 
of Florida and 76W, from 25N and north of 31N. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are offshore northern Florida. Aside 
from the area off eastern Florida, winds are moderate or weaker, 
north of 20N and west of 50W with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.

Further east, a stationary front is draped across the central 
Atlantic from 31N36W to 31N51W. Although winds behind the front 
are gentle, seas of 6 to 9 ft in N swell extend into the area 
north of 28N and east of 45W. Across the remainder of the 
tropical Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh N to NE trade winds 
and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail south of 20N, from the coast of 
Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
gradually sink southward and reach from 31N74W to the Straits of 
Florida tonight, then from 31N69W to northeastern Cuba Tue 
night. Afterward, it should stall from near Bermuda to the 
southeast Bahamas and dissipate during midweek. Looking ahead, a 
strengthening Bermuda High will introduce moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and higher seas across the western Atlantic toward
the weekend.

$$

Nepaul