000
AXNT20 KNHC 161633
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 04N14W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N14W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 05N and west of 14W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the northeast Gulf as of 15Z from 
Pascagoula, Mississippi to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh 
to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted behind 
the front. Ahead of the front, an outflow boundary is moving 
quickly southeastward over the central Gulf waters and is 
producing numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 
22N northward between 85W to 94W. Mariners are recommended to 
use caution if navigating near the aforementioned storms and 
outflow boundary. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 
to 5 ft are noted off northern Yucatan and over the eastern Bay 
of Campeche waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas are likely
today near numerous showers and thunderstorms active ahead of
the front over the north- central Gulf. The abovementioned front 
will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, 
before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the 
northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. Fresh to strong N to 
NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of 
the western and central Gulf tonight into early Mon. Looking ahead, 
fresh to locally strong SE winds are likely over the western Gulf 
Tue night into Wed, diminishing through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass reveals that moderate to 
fresh easterly trade winds prevail in the south-central 
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6 
to 9 ft. Moderate easterly winds are evident in the 
north-central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6 
ft. Light to gentle E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a 
moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean 
through today, except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean 
off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across 
the basin into mid week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a 
weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, 
winds may increase off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds 
north of the region following the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A remnant trough from a stationary front that has dissipated 
extends from 31N37W to 25N50W. Latest scatterometer satellite 
data depicts moderate NE to E winds behind the aforementioned 
boundary and also north of Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands to 
26N. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft. The remainder of the 
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge 
promoting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore of northeast 
Florida tonight, continue moving slowly to the southeast and reach 
from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling 
and dissipating through mid week. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through mid 
week. 

$$
Nepaul