000 AXNT20 KNHC 161021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and west of 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary is moving quickly southeastward over the SE Gulf waters. Satellite-derived wind data depicts fresh to strong winds behind the outflow boundary. Mariners are recommended to use caution if navigating near the aforementioned storms and outflow boundary. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting SE Texas and western Louisiana, as well as the Gulf waters N of 28N and W of 89W associated with a cold front that extends from 30N93W to 27N97W. Fresh winds are noted NW of the front with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted off northern Yucatan and over the eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico early Mon, before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle E-SE winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through today, except for fresh to strong winds overnight in the south-central Caribbean off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase again off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region following the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 25N47W and continues southwestward as a shear line to 20N69W. Latest scatterometer satellite data depicts moderate to fresh NE-E winds behind the aforementioned frontal boundaries and also north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to 26N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Gusty winds and rough seas are expected across the W Atlantic mainly N of the Bahamas within the scattered moderate convection present in this area. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge promoting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore of northeast Florida tonight and continue moving slowly to the southeast, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through mid week. $$ ERA