292 
AXNT20 KNHC 160531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N35W to
01N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed 
south of 06N and west of 25W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The intense line of showers and thunderstorms moving across the
northern and NE Gulf of Mexico has lost strength as it approaches
the nearshore waters of west Florida. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen on satellite imagery north of
25N and east of 92W. As of 0300 UTC, an outflow boundary is moving
quickly southeastward over the SE Gulf waters. Satellite-derived
wind data show near gale-force winds behind the outflow boundary.
Mariners are recommended to use caution if navigating near the 
aforementioned storms and outflow boundary. Another line of 
showers and thunderstorms is affecting SE Texas and western 
Louisiana, associated with a cold front that is approaching the NW
Gulf waters. These storms will move over the NW Gulf over the 
next few hours. Fresh to strong winds are found north of 25N and 
east of 93W, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E 
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted off northern Yucatan and over 
the eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a squall line has developed in the NE Gulf ahead
of a cold front that is currently moving into coastal Texas. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail N of 25N and E of 89W.
Gusty winds and rough seas may accompany this activity overnight.
The front will enter the northwest Gulf tonight, move southeastward
and reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico early Mon,
before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to 
the northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. Fresh to strong 
N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over 
much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to
strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the south-central
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft, with the highest seas off NW Colombia. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds are evident in the north-central and 
eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle E-SE
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a
moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central 
Caribbean through Sun, except for fresh to strong winds overnight
in the south-central Caribbean off Colombia and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid week as 
the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching
the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase again off
Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region 
following the front. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 25N48W and continues
southwestward as a shear line to 18N61W to 20N67W. Latest
scatterometer satellite data show moderate to fresh NE-E winds
behind the aforementioned frontal boundaries and also north of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to 26N. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. A weak surface trough off NE Florida is enhancing the storm
activity affecting the nearshore waters of eastern Florida. The 
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 
subtropical ridge promoting moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas.

For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore of northeast Florida
Sun night or early Mon morning, continue slowly to the southeast,
reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, 
before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast 
Florida through mid week. 

$$
DELGADO