000 AXNT20 KNHC 151808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Senegal border and extends westward to 11N21W. No significant convection is occurring near this feature. An ITCZ stretches from 04N18W across 04N35W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 05N between 21W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough is forming across the west-central and north-central Gulf. Aided by a mid-latitude trough over Texas, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are found from north of the Bay of Campeche to near New Orleans. Fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are seen in these areas. Rough marine conditions with dangerous lightning are expected near these thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak ridging extends from southwest Florida to southeast Louisiana. The ridge will shift east today ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf tonight. The front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach from Fort Myers, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sun night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north-central and NE Gulf today. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1025 mb Bermuda continues to sustain easterly winds across the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Light to gentle ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean off Colombia, and over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase again off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region following the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front curves southwestward from the western Azores across 31N40W to northeast of Hispaniola at 21N68W. Patchy showers are seen up to 40 nm along either side of this feature. A surface trough is over eastern Cuba and the central and northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident over the central Bahamas but just east of the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. NE winds are from 13N southward between 34W and 57W. Light to gentle easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present near the Atlantic ridge north of 20N between 25W and 50W, and near the Bermuda High north of 26N between 50W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted from 20N to 26N between 50W and the Bahamas, and from 04N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist north of 18N between the African coast and 25W. Light to gentle NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, a weak trough over the Bahamas will dissipate late today. A cold front will move offshore of northeast Florida Sun night or early Mon morning, continues slowly to the southeast, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through late Wed. $$ Forecaster Chan