000
AXNT20 KNHC 141704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S46W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from the equator to 03N
between 10W and 14W and from 02N to 04N between 35W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate return flow prevails over the Gulf waters, with
2-4 ft seas. Several surface observations along the coast of the
Bay of Campeche indicate reduced visibilities due to haze and 
smoke from inland agricultural fires. Haze and smoke is limited to
the nearshore waters at this time. A fair weather mesoscale low 
is apparent on visible satellite near Tampico, Mexico.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift east Sat ahead of a cold 
front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night. The 
front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach 
from Sarasota, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to strong
N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over 
much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in 
advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe 
thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north- 
central and NE Gulf on Sat. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia has expired. Strong to near gale force NE winds will 
persist over this area through the weekend, sustaining seas of 8-9
ft. Elsewhere in the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean, moderate
to locally fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. In the NW
Caribbean, gentle to moderate SE winds prevail with 2-4 ft seas.
In the Gulf of Honduras, the latest scatterometer shows fresh SE 
winds.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the 
Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the 
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for 
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near 
gale force winds will persist through the weekend within 60 nm of 
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds 
should diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening 
cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N50W where a stationary
front then continues to 22N62W to 31N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of the Bahamas. Scattered showers are ahead of
the cold front in the central Atlantic. 1024 mb high pressure 
near 31N64W and another high pressure centered near the Azores
provides for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across most of
the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across the waters. In the far E
Atlantic, strong to near gale force NE winds were detected by
scatterometer this morning near the Canary Islands and the coast
of Africa. Seas in these high winds are 8-9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh winds will prevail N of the 
front as it drifts E while weakening through the weekend. The next
cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun 
night enhancing winds/seas across the W Atlantic through Tue. 

$$
Mahoney