000 AXNT20 KNHC 122235 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023 Corrected satellite imagery time Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low pressure of 1010 mb centered in the central Gulf near 26N89W, with associated warm and stationary fronts and high pressure to its north and northeast east has resulted in a tight pressure gradient that is bringing strong to near-gale force east winds with gusts to gale-force over most of the north-central and NE Gulf waters. A recent ASCAT data pass over the NE and eastern Gulf clearly depicted these winds. These winds are forecast to generate seas in the range of 8-12 ft. Some of the observations from buoys and oil platforms over these areas of the Gulf have begun to reflect these wind conditions. The strong to gale-force winds will continue over the north-central and NE Gulf through tonight as the low tracks generally northward. The low will move inland over the U.S. north- central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 02N16W to 02N24W and to 01N30W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to just below the Equator near 40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the trough between 17W-22W and within 180 nm north of the trough between 18W-24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 13W-17W and within 180 nm south of the trough between 22W-29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning that is currently in effect for the north-central and NE Gulf. The low pressure of 1010 mb centered near 26N89W, and that is described above under Special Features has a warm front extending from it to 27N88W and southeast to 25N85W, where it transitions to a stationary front that extends southeastward across the middle Florida Keys. Plenty of lift exists along and north of the warm and stationary fronts, where the atmosphere is very unstable. In addition, divergence aloft to the east of the upper-level low that is retrograding westward over southwestern Louisiana is also present. Latest satellite imagery shows extensive cloudiness denoting the shield of rain that is present to the north and northeast of the low pressure and associated warm and stationary fronts. Extensive areas of rain along with embedded scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are underneath these clouds. A trough also extends from the low to near 26N96W and another one from the low to near 23N86W. Scattered showers moving southward are seen from 25N to 28N between 89W-96W. Elsewhere outside the areas impacted by the Special Features system, generally gentle to moderate winds are over the western part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh northeast winds are over the NW Gulf, light and variable are south of the warm front and gentle east to southeast winds are south of the stationary front, except for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Straits of Florida. Seas outside the impacted Special Feature system range from 4-7 ft over the western Gulf south of 26N, 7-10 ft southwest of Louisiana due to a northeast to east swell and 6-8 ft over the central Gulf. Lower seas of 2-4 ft are over the southeastern Gulf and southern Gulf south of 22N and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the 1010 mb low pressure over the central Gulf near 26N89W will move inland over the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on Thu. Expect improving marine conditions in its wake. For the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and seas to increase over the western and Gulf and over the western part of the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure across the area is maintaining general dry and stable conditions throughout the basin as continues to suppress deep convection from developing. Only isolated showers moving westward in the trade wind flow are seen north of about 12N and east of 81W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south-central and southeastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W-80W, and lower seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere per a few altimeter data passes. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the northeastern Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin today, and then spread southward into the southeastern basin through Thu before dissipating by the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N52.5W to 25N62W, where it becomes a stationary front to central Bahamas and continues northwestward to the middle Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 28N and east of the front to 50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and north of the cold and stationary fronts to near 29N, however, north of the stationary front and west of 70W scattered to numerous showers are present. This activity reaches northward to near 29N. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of the stationary front, while mostly fresh northeast winds are northwest of the cold front. Seas over these waters are 9-11 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic behind the cold front is under moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-9 ft are east of the cold front, especially north of 22N and west of 57W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong northeast winds north of 22N and east of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 30W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast winds north of the aforementioned stationary front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through this early this evening. Rough seas north of 25N produced by large northeast swell should gradually subside tonight. The cold front will continue slowly moving eastward through Fri, while the stationary front should gradually weaken and dissipate. In response, winds and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. $$ Aguirre