296 AXNT20 KNHC 111659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 10W and 16W and from 00N to 04N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is noted in the far SE Gulf of Mexico extending from the Florida Straits. Another surface trough has formed S of Louisiana. To the NE of the troughs, fresh to strong E winds dominate in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere in the Gulf, mainly gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas in the NE Gulf are 5 to 8 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas to its north will persist across the northeastern Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through tonight. A low pressure system is expected to form near the central Gulf along the surface trough tonight, then become better organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected at the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern Gulf through Thu morning. Marine conditions at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean, and a weak high pressure regime sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the south-central and SE Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia for the rest of this week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin on Wed, and then spread across the eastern Caribbean through Thu before dissipating by the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A nearly stationary front extends from 31N63W to 24N80W. This front will drift SE over the next few days, with strong to near gale force NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft spreading across waters N of 25W and W of 68W through tonight. The front is expected to stall again along 23N late this week. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola. The combination of the trough and front is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 24N and between 65W and 80W. Fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Atlantic north of 22N and east of 40W, with the strongest winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. These winds are generating 8-9 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to locally near-gale force NE to ENE winds north of the stationary front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through tonight, then become fresh to strong on Wed. Rough seas north of 25N produced by large NE swell should gradually subside through Wed. The front will begin to move E again later Wed and continue as a cold front through Fri. Winds and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. $$ KONARIK