000 AXNT20 KNHC 110601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A stationary front is along 31N63W 27N70W, across the northern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 25N80W. A surface trough continues from 25N80W, through the Straits of Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough is from 180 nm to 240 nm to the SSE of the stationary front. The sea heights range from 12 feet to 16 feet from the stationary front northwestward. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from the stationary front northwestward. The sea heights will go down a bit. The wind speeds will slow down also. Expect strong NE winds, and the sea heights to range from 10 feet to 12 feet from tonight until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Expect fresh to strong winds, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 9 feet, to the northwest of the stationary front, during the day on Wednesday. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Bermuda, at 10/1200 UTC, was 2.35. The 24-hour rainfall total for Bermuda, at 11/0000 UTC, was 2.19 inches. Current precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is to the northwest of the line that runs from 31N50W to the Mona Passage. The sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the Bahamas, and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 70W westward away from the Bahamas and to the south of the stationary front. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N to the surface trough between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong southerly winds have been from 24N northward between 60W and 65W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW Sierra Leone, to 02N19W, and to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W, to 02N30W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward from 30W eastward. One surface trough is from the Equator along 32W to 05N38W. A second surface trough is along 45W/47W from 01N to 09N. A third surface trough is along the Equator at 46W to 03N51W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 11N southward between 30W and 52W, and in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An east-to-west oriented surface trough is along 23N/24N. The trough is at the southwestern end of the Atlantic Ocean stationary front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the western part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico northward to the border of Mexico with South Texas between 90W and 100W, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the surface trough northward from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the surface trough northward between 86W and 94W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere, on the either side of the trough. The sea heights range from: 4 feet to 7 feet from the surface trough northward from 90W eastward; 3 feet to 5 feet from the surface trough northward from 90W westward; 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. A surface trough reaches westward from the Florida Keys to the south-central Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas to its north will persist across the northeastern and east- central Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through Tue. A low pressure system is expected to develop across the northern Gulf on Tue night, then become better organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected in the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern Gulf Tue night through Thu morning. The marine conditions in both locations will improve by Thu afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough roughly along 80W from Cuba to Panama. Anticyclonic wind flow is on either side of the trough. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows broad anticyclonic wind flow from 80W eastward. A surface ridge is along 17N80W beyond 20N65W in the Atlantic Ocean to the northeast of Puerto Rico. Some strong NE winds are within 100 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W westward. Fresh NE winds are within 240 nm of the same coastal areas from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the areas that are within 360 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle or slower winds are in the remainder of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from: 4 feet to 6 feet in the southern two-thirds of the central Caribbean Sea; from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NW section; 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one- third. The Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through the end of the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue in the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the week, and begin in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin by Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb 36N25W high pressure center, to 33N41W, through 27N49W 22N57W to 20N65W. Broad moderate to fresh anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the ITCZ northward from 50W eastward. Some exceptions are: mostly strong to some near gale-force NE winds are from 24N northward from 20W eastward, including in the Canary Islands; fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward between 20W and 30W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 18N northward from 35W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 50W eastward. A stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across the northwest Bahamas to near the Florida Keys. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds behind this front will prevail north of 24N and west of 66W through tonight. These winds should decrease to between fresh and strong on Tue. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front north of 26N should gradually subside through Tue evening. The front will reach from 31N58W to the Florida Straits Tue morning. Afterward, the northeastern portion will continue moving eastward as a cold front while weaken through Thu. The southwestern portion will stall across the Florida Straits and near the central Bahamas, and gradually dissipate through Wed night. In response, both winds and seas should subside further by Wed night. $$ mt/era