000 AXNT20 KNHC 101740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: The gale force windd behind the strong cold front moving across the SW Atlantic have ended, however, a significant swell event remains in its wake. The front will continue to sink southeastward over the next few days, with wind gusts to gale force expected across the coastal Florida waters N of 27N and W of 80W through tonight. Strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas will continue to spread across the waters N of 24N and W of 65W through Tue. Seas are peaking near 21 ft, mainly along 31N and W of 72W. Maximum sea heights will begin to abate today, with NE swell remaining above 12 ft through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 23N by the middle of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N25W to 03N35W and to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 05N to the equator between 16W and 36W. Similar convection is also noted towards the tail end of the ITCZ, where a north-to- south oriented trough from 00N-05N between 10W-45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches from Key West, FL, to the central Gulf near 24N88W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along this boundary. Recent buoy observations recorded fresh to strong NE winds in the NE Gulf, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere behind the front, with 5 to 6 ft seas. South of 24N, gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas behind the front will persist across the northeastern and east-central Gulf and near the Florida Keys through Thu. A modest low pressure system is expected to develop near the western end of the stationary front on Tue. It should lift northward while becoming better organized through Thu, and then move inland over southern Louisiana on Thu night or Fri morning. In response, fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and rising seas are expected at the north-central Gulf Tue through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh easterly trade winds are affecting the waters in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia and within the Gulf of Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Moderate easterly breezes and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area near 22N sustains a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue in the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the week, and begin in the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate north swell related to a strong cold front currently across the western Atlantic will enter the eastern basin on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure near 32N64W to 25N73W and to Key Largo, FL. A recent scatterometer pass recorded strong to near gale force NE winds behind the front, with rough to very rough seas, described in the special features section above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue within 90 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection also surrounds a prefrontal trough, extending from 29N65W to the southern Bahamas near 22N73W. Convection is mainly east of the trough from 24N to 31N between 60W and 67W, where fresh southerly winds were noted in the scatterometer pass. Seas east of the front to 60W are 6 to 9 ft. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 40W. These winds are building 8-10 ft seas in the area. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate NE-E winds and 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE winds will prevail north of 27N behind the front through today. These winds should decrease to between fresh and strong but spread southward to 24N on Tue. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front along 31N will begin subsiding this afternoon through Tue. The front will reach from 31N61W to the Florida Straits by this evening, then stall and gradually weaken near northwestern Cuba and the central Bahamas through Thu. $$ Mora