000 AXNT20 KNHC 101011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front is moving across the SW Atlantic and will sink southeastward over the next few days. Gale-force N to NE winds will prevail N of 30 between 71W-75W through this morning. Wind gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal Florida waters N of 27N and W of 80W through tonight. Strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas will continue to spread across the waters N of 24N and W of 65W through Tue. Seas are peaking near 21 ft mainly along 31N and W of 72W. Maximum sea heights will begin to abate today with NE swell remaining above 12 ft through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 23N by the middle of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 00N-05N between 10W-45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 26N82W to 25N85W, then becomes weak and stationary to 25N90W. Scattered showers are noted along the frontal boundaries. Behind the front in the NE Gulf, fresh to strong NE winds prevail with 6-8 ft seas. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate NE winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds are expected north of the front in the NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres is expected to develop in the central Gulf by Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail E of the low with seas to 10 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are affecting the waters in the south-central Caribbean. The wave heights in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate easterly breezes and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pres centered over the eastern Atlantic extends its ridge SW to the SE Bahamas, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean E of 80W through Wed, pulsing to strong at night S of 13N. High pressure will prevail N of the area through midweek ahead of a strong cold front that will continue to move across the W Atlantic. The front will stall along 23N by Thu. Strong trades will return over the central Caribbean south of 15N and to the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 32N66W to 26N80W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 28N70W to the SE Bahamas. Between the front and the trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW. East of the trough, winds are fresh from the S. Seas are generally 6-8 ft ahead of the front in the western and central Atlantic. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Atlantic north of 20N. These winds are building 8-10 ft seas in the area. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force NE winds will prevail north of 30N behind the front through this morning. Very large NE swell producing seas to around 21 ft along 31N will begin subsiding today through Tue. The front will reach from 31N64W to the Upper Florida Keys by this evening, then stall and gradually weaken along 23N by Thu/Fri. $$ ERA