000 AXNT20 KNHC 090353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front has entered the western Atlantic this evening and will sink across the waters of NE Florida through early Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun night, and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds and high seas will build behind the front Sun, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front progresses SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east coast of Florida from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. The Ocean Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to reach 22 feet near 31N77W on Sunday night. The NE swell will continue to produce sea heights of 12 feet and greater through Tuesday evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border between Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 10W and 16W, and from 03N to 05N between 18W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big Bend area to the west central Gulf near 25N92W. A weakening stationary boundary continues into the Bay of Campeche. A line of showers and thunderstorms extends roughly 90 nm ahead of the cold front. Winds are generally fresh from the NE behind the front and gentle to moderate ahead of the front. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 5-7 ft south of 27N and west of 93W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 29.5N83.5W to 25N92W continues as a dissipating stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the easterly half of the Gulf through Sun. Another low pres system, expected to develop offshore of the SE coast of United States tonight, will drag the cold front southward across the NE Gulf and over Florida on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres will develop along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong trade winds in eastern Caribbean, where seas are 5-7 ft. Winds are moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean, with a small area of strong NE winds within 120 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas are 2- 4 ft in the north-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south- central Caribbean. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support pulsing fresh to strong winds in the S-central Caribbean at night through the next several days. Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will subside through Sun night. Weak high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through mid-week ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the NW Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front has entered the far western Atlantic waters. Buoys are reporting strong NE winds behind the front, with 5-7 ft seas on a building trend. A surface trough extends from 30N67W, across the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. This feature is becoming less well defined and the associated weather has mostly cleared over the last 24 hours. East of the cold front, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. A pair of 1027 mb high pressure centers dominate the central Atlantic pattern. Winds are gentle north of 29N, increasing to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening stationary boundary extends from 31N19W to 28N30W. A recent scatterometer pass found strong NNE winds NW of the front where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast, the trough will continue to shift W to the central Bahamas through Sun night while weakening. Atlantic high pres is drapped across the waters N of the trough, and is producing fresh winds and seas to 9 ft E of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually diminish through late Sun as the high pres weakens. Conditions in the western Atlantic and coastal SE US will continue to deteriorate through Sun behind the strong cold front. Again, refer to the Special Features section for more details on this event. $$ Flynn