922 AXNT20 KNHC 061758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Guinea, to 04N20W, 03N22W, 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to 02N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the Equator southward between 34W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A slowly-moving cold front passes through SW Louisiana to the coastal plains of Mexico near 22N98W, a little bit to the SW of Tampico in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Texas from 100W eastward. More widely scattered moderate to isolated strong precipitation is in Louisiana, moving toward the N and NE. Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds, and seas heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are in the southern and southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the western, the north central, and the southeastern sections of the area. Gentle to moderate E-to-SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf. A cold front over the western Gulf extends from SW Louisiana to inland extreme northeastern Mexico. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are behind the front. The front will stall this morning and linger over the NW Gulf through Fri night. Winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong over some of the waters. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf on Fri and gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow behind the low will push the front east-southeastward across the northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is expected to stall over the southeast and south-central Gulf Sun and into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the front. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche this morning and again tonight into early Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 50W and 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea northward between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and 70W in the Caribbean Sea, and in Hispaniola. Strong winds are within 180 nm of Puerto Rico in the eastern semicircle, in the areas of precipitation. Fresh to strong NE-to-E winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force E-to-SE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E trade winds are in the rest of the central section and in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong E-to-SE winds are in the western half of the area. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the north central and western sections. Mostly moderate NE-to-E winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the western Atlantic Ocean and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Fri. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse tonight in the lee of Cuba. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight as a broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just north of the islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 80W. Multiple individual upper level cyclonic circulation centers are in the area of broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, mostly between 60W and 70W. An inverted surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean between 50W and 70W, and in Hispaniola. The 57W surface trough is moving through broad surface anticyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to moderate E winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 23N northward from 55W westward. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E trade winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, are within 1100 nm to the ESE of the 57W surface trough. The swell is from the NE-to-E, from 10N northward from 60W eastward. including in the Canary and in the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh NE-to-ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 23N southward between 55W and the southeastern Bahamas and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet in a moderate N swell, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will continue to support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. A broad 57W inverted trough will shift westward through Sat, reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure north of the area. A cold front will move to just offshore NE Florida on Sat, bringing strong to gale-force northerly winds and a significant swell event from Sun night into Mon. $$ mt/gr