000 AXNT20 KNHC 051710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds once again tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will reach a range of 9-12 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W to 10N27W. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of this feature at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and waters off northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will continue across the western Gulf waters today in advance of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the far NW Gulf this afternoon and stall, where it will meander through Fri. The front will then weaken and dissipate by Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on an ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. An Atlantic surface ridge continues to support a relatively fair trade wind regime across the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area described above, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 8-11 ft are over the south-central section of the basin. Strong to near-gale ESE winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft are over the northwestern part of the basin, over the waters between Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and a low pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails across most of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from 24N60W to 18N60W with scattered moderate convection between 57W-63W. Another trough is along 50W from 22N-28N with no significant convective activity. Gentle to moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 19N and between 55W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 7-10 ft due to a decaying northerly swell are north of 19N and between 35W-55W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong north to northeast trades and seas of 9-11 ft due to a large northerly swell are located north of 18N between the African coast and 35W. To the south, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are from 03N to 18N and between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands through Thu evening. A broad inverted trough is expected to develop near 55W tonight and shift westward through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ ERA