000 AXNT20 KNHC 050546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds tonight and Wed night within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will reach 9 to 11 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau coast near Bissau and extends southwestward across 05N22W to EQ29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from 01N to 07N between 10W and 20W. There is no ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and waters off northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the western Gulf waters through Wed in advance of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf Wed afternoon and stall, where it will meander through Fri. It will then weaken and dissipate by Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a Gale Warning. An Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores High continues to support a relatively fair trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are seen near the Leeward Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Strong to near-gale ESE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are present at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin, south of Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge to the north and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support fresh to near-gale force easterly winds in the central, and portions of the southwestern Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough south of Bermuda near 29N65W is coupling with an upper-level trough in the vicinity to trigger scattered moderate convection from 21N to 29N between 60W and 68W. Convergent trade winds are producing widely scattered moderate convection from the Equator to 03N between 33W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 19N between 55W and the Georgia- Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 7 to 10 ft seas in decaying northerly swell are found north of 19N between 35W and 55W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong N to NE trades and seas at 9 to 11 ft in large northerly swell are present north of 18N between the African coast and 35W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from 03N to 18N/19N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N between 55W and the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks/Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along 55W Wed night and shift westward through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ Forecaster Chan