000
AXNT20 KNHC 042306
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The strong pressure gradient between 
the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will 
support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds tonight within 90 nm of
the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will reach 8 to 
10 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
Offshore Waters Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 02N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N26W to 02S36W to the coast of Brazil near 
02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator
to 04N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong SE to S return flow continues across the Gulf of 
Mexico west of 90W, with 5-7 ft seas. East of 90W, SE winds are 
gentle to moderate and seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at 
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through 
Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the W half of
the Gulf through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is 
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon and stall across 
NW portion, where it will meander through Fri. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about a
Gale Warning.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trades in the
central Caribbean, with near gale conditions off the coast of 
Colombia in the south-central basin. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in these 
areas. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the eastern 
Caribbean, generating 4 to 6 ft seas. The NW Caribbean is mostly 
dominated by moderate easterly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas, except 
for a strong breeze and 4 to 6 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging 
in the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will 
support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of 
Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds 
are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse 
at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Moderate to fresh trades 
will continue in the E Caribbean through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally fair weather conditions are analyzed across the tropical
Atlantic, with a strong subtropical ridge dominating the area. The
exception is a surface trough analyzed from 31N62W to 28N67W. 
This feature is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 25N to 
31N, between 61W and 68W. Otherwise in the western Atlantic, 
trades are light to gentle with 3-6 ft seas. In the eastern 
Atlantic, NE winds are fresh to locally strong. These winds are
blowing across an area of northerly swell, helping to maintain sea
heights of 8 to 11 ft through the majority of the basin east of
50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging covers the subtropical
Atlantic waters, including the Bahamas, and continues to support 
moderate to fresh trade winds S of 24N to the east of the 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 9 ft in this
region will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. 
Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop 
along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This feature 
will enhance winds and seas E of the Bahamas through the end of 
the week. 

$$
Flynn