000 AXNT20 KNHC 041736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds at night within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia through tonight. Seas will reach at 10 to 12 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to 02S36W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator north to 05N between 25W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh SE to S return flow (locally strong in the Bay of Campeche) continues across the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W, with 5-7 ft seas. East of 90W, return flow is gentle to moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the W half of the Gulf through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon and stall across NW portion, where it will meander through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a Gale Warning. Fresh to strong trades persist in the central Caribbean. 6-8 ft seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas currently analyzed in the GALE WARNING AREA. Moderate to fresh trades continue in the E Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the W Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where trades are fresh and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging in the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba today through Fri. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Generally fair weather conditions are analyzed across the tropical Atlantic, with a strong subtropical ridge dominating the area. North of 15N and east of 47W, seas are 8-12 ft in N swell with fresh NE winds. In the W Atlantic, trades are light to gentle with 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere in remaining waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging covers the subtropical Atlantic waters, including the Bahamas, and continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds S of 24N to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 9 ft in this region will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas E of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ Mahoney