000 AXNT20 KNHC 032315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting E-NE winds to gale force within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. These winds will persist through the night, decrease to strong Tue morning, and regenerate to minimal gale force Tue night. Sea heights will range from 10 to 12 ft when the gales are active. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Seas of 8-12 ft in a northerly swell are observed across a large portion of the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. Specifically, combined seas are greater than 8 ft south of a line from 31N44W to 18N63W and north of a line from 12N60W to 13N45W to 23N20W to 31N18W. Wind are generally fresh from the ENE in this area. These seas will gradually abate through Thu, however a trade wind surge will keep seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic through Sat. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W to the equator at 35W. The ITCZ continues to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 05N, between 18W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate southerly flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 87W and 1 to 3 ft east of 87W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri. High pressure and fresh to strong return flow will develop across the W half of the Gulf tonight through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will meander through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. Outside of the gale force winds, easterly winds are strong in the Colombian Basin and fresh throughout the central Caribbean. Winds are moderate elsewhere. Seas are currently 7 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Carribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Tue night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing significant swell event in the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N74W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the front from 25N to 29N, between 58W and 64W. Similar convection is also observed within 90 nm of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Behind the front, winds are moderate from the NE with 5 to 7 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle with 4 to 6 ft seas. West of 77W, winds are gentle and seas are slight. For the forecast, high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands extends W-SW to the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 10 ft in this region will diminish late Tue as Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the area. A cold front extending from 31N57W to 26N74W will continue to move SE and weaken through Tue. Moderate winds will prevail in the vicinity of the front across the waters N of 28N through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This feature will enhance winds/seas E of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ Flynn