000 AXNT20 KNHC 022324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered in the east-central Atlantic, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 or 13 ft within the area of the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N25W to 25N35W, where it begins to dissipate. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell currently covering the waters N of a line from 29N35W to 26N45W to 31N45W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southeastward across the waters E of 60W tonight and Mon. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft over the NE corner of the forecast area by Tue evening. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate most of the waters N of 13N and E of 55W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues SW to near 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 18W and 20W. Elsewhere convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered just W of the Florida Keys, while a weak cold front is becoming stationary across N Florida and the NE Gulf along 28N. A few showers are expected along the frontal boundary. The most recent scatterometer data provide observations of light to gentle winds across most the Gulf waters with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft W of 90W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 90W, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through early Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will meander through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, with the strong winds of 30 kt within about 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 9 to 11 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed over the NW part of the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered in the central Atlantic, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually subside Mon through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N25W to 25N35W, where it begins to dissipate. A broken band of low level clouds with possible showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data within about 250 nm north of the front. A couple of altimeter passes indicate seas near 15 ft in the wake of the front. High pressure of 1030 mb located near 35N38W is behind the front and extends a ridge across the western Atlantic to near 70W. Another cold front is moving across the waters off NE Florida and stretches from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 29N to about 67W. High pressure of 1026 mb localed NE of the Madeira Islands dominates the far eastern Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are affecting the waters between the Lesser Antilles and 45W. The wave heights in these waters are 8 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong N to NE winds between the Canary Islands and near the coast of southern Morocco where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered across the central Atlantic extends W-SW to the central Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 24N, and seas to 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish late Tue as Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the area. The cold front will move SE and weaken through late Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds across the waters N of 28N in advance of this front will lift N of the area tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. $$ GR