000 AXNT20 KNHC 021802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1029 mb in the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N28W to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues to 23N61W. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell, currently covering the waters N of 25N between 33W and 50W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southeastward today. Seas will begin to lift north and subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area late on Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 30W and the coast of Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered offshore of SW Florida this morning while a weak cold front extends across the N Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to the S Louisiana coast. The high-pressure center supports light to gentle variable winds over the eastern half of the basin, with seas below 3 ft. Moderate to fresh return flow prevails across great portions of the SW Gulf and western Gulf, west of 95W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will sink slowly S across the NE Gulf today and dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through early Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with a strong high pressure centered in the north-central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting strong to near gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, captured in the latest scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft south of 15N between 72W and 80W. Winds for the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft, including in the Mona Passage. Mainly moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are in the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to near gale force winds will prevail in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell across the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually subside through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is emerging off the SE U.S. coast, with a profound surface trough ahead of it. The trough reaches from 31N75W to Freeport, Grand Bahama, and to near Biscayne Bay, FL. A squall line containing thunderstorms with frequent lighting, along with strong SW winds, is noted north of 28.5N, moving eastward between 75W and 80W. Fresh NW winds are behind the remainder of the trough and frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, 1030 mb high centered over the north central Atlantic extends a surface ridge to the southern Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the southern edge of the ridge and the tail of the front discussed in the special features section along 21N continues to support moderate to fresh E to NE winds, S of 25N between 65W and 50W, and S of 30N between 50W and 30W. Outside of the 12 ft seas described above, seas of 6 to 9 ft are mainly east of 70W, reaching Puerto Rico and the northward-facing Lesser Antillies. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are east of 60W behind the front. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, south of 20N and west of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, fresh NE-E winds prevail where seas are 6 to 8 ft. In the NE basin, N of 20N and E of 20W, fresh to strong NE winds prevail between NW Africa and the Canary Islands along with seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas will diminish late Tue after the passage of a cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. this morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are across the waters N of 27N in advance of this new front that is forecast to reach E Bermuda adjacent waters to 27N73W early on Mon before stalling and moving N of the area Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu. $$ Mora