000 AXNT20 KNHC 021034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1029 mb in the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N29W to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues to 23N68W. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell currently covering the waters N of 26N between 33W and 48W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southward today. Seas will subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area late on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 03N between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered over the central N Atlantic extends a ridge WSW through the western Gulf, thus supporting moderate to fresh return flow across great portions of the SW gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure is located over the SE gulf, which is generating light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the basin. Seas across the gulf fluctuate between 2 to 4 ft, highest W of 90W. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will sink slowly into the N Gulf today and dissipate across the eastern Gulf tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing cloudiness and embedded showers over the SE Caribbean and Windward Islands. Aside from isolated showers, a dry airmass dominates the remainder of the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas will build to near 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North Atlantic tonight through Sun night then gradually subside through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N30W to 22N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues to 22N65W. No significant convection is noted near the front. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are found behind the frontal boundary, mainly 250 nm north of the front. Seas of 8-16 ft are present behind of the frontal boundary, primarily east of 65W. The highest seas are evident near 31N44W. The remainder of the western Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge positioned near 33N51W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the storm system over the eastern seaboard support fresh to strong southerly winds north of the NW Bahamas and west of 65W. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent in the waters north of the eastern Greater Antilles, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are affecting the waters between the Lesser Antilles and 35W. The wave heights in these waters are 6-9 ft. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa sustain fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds north of 18N and east of 22W. Seas in the area described are 8-11 ft, with the highest seas off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the wake of a front that moved E of the area early in the evening will continue to produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds east of the central and southern Bahamas through tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N61W to the NW Bahamas by Mon afternoon, then weaken through Tue night. Expect fresh to strong winds ahead of the front N of 29N through Sun evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week. $$ Ramos