000 AXNT20 KNHC 011753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm-force extratropical cyclone positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores will continue to push northeastward over the next few days. Large NW to N swell generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east of 60W starting this morning. This will cause combined seas to build and peak between 14-16 ft north of 28N, and 11-13 ft seas reaching as far south as 20N this afternoon through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 00N between 20W and 33W. Similar convection is noted near the coast of Brazil south of 02N between 40W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure system located just east of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate return flow is over the northern Gulf, where seas are 3 to 5 ft, except in the Florida Big Bend region, seas are less than 3 ft. For the rest of the Gulf south of 26N, mainly fresh SE winds are noted with 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas of 6 ft are mainly in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will enter the N Gulf today and dissipate across the eastern Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. The next cold front is forecast to come off the Texas coast Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf by Tue morning ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient created from strong high pressure located just east of Bermuda and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh to strong trades across much of the Caribbean, with the exception of the far NW basin, where winds are moderate to fresh. A recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed strong winds confined to the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W. Strong winds are also possible in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are noted south of 15N between 71W and 79W. Seas above 12 ft are within 120 nm of the NW coast of Colombia. 6 to 8 ft seas are over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, including in the Windward and Mona Passages and in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is sweeping across the central Subtropical Atlantic, entering the forecast area near 31N40W and extending to 24N50W and to 22N60W, where it becomes stationary to 23N70W. High pressure building behind the front supports fresh to strong N-NE winds between 45W and 60W, shifting to E winds between 75W and 60W, mainly south of 28N. Fresh to strong SSW winds were captured in a recent satellite scatterometer pass off the SE U.S. coast out to near 73W. Moderate anticyclonic flow is noted elsewhere west of 45W behind the front. Seas behind the boundary are current ranging from 9 to 12 ft north of 27N and east of 60W, with mainly 8 ft seas elsewhere. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E trades are over the tropical Atlantic waters south of 20N and west of 40W, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE- E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas also remain in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, north of 22N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate through tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will continue ahead of the front and also will follow the front as it shifts eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun, before the strong winds lift north of 31N Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week. $$ Mora