000 AXNT20 KNHC 011042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 12-14 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm-force extratropical cyclone positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores will continue to push northeastward over the next few days. Large NW to N swell generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east of 60W starting this morning. This will cause combined seas to build and peak between 14-16 ft north of 28N, and 11-13 ft seas reaching as far south as 20N this afternoon through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 00N30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 01N between 20W and 32W, and from 03S to 02N W of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure system located just west of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and is producing moderate to fresh return flow over most of the basin, except for locally strong winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, highest in the SW gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will enter the N Gulf today and exit the basin Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast peiod. The next cold front is forecast to come off the Texas coast Wed night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf by Tue morning ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure N of the basin continues to support fresh to strong trades across the central and SW Caribbean with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring in the Gulf of Honduras along with 5-7 ft seas. Gale force winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia where seas are 11 to 13 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds continue elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered just west of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas will build to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend and then gradaually subside through Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 23N55W to 22N70W. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front is producing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the central and southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail offshore northeastern Florida. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken and dissipate today. The next cold front will move off the coast of the SE U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will continue ahead of the front and also will follow the front as it shift eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week. $$ Ramos