000 AXNT20 KNHC 311720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell: A strengthening low pressure system over the north Atlantic will produce gale to storm-force winds over the next few days north of our area. The system will send large NW to N swell southward, with seas greater than 12 ft entering our northern waters early Sat and then expanding southeastward. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are forecast to cover an area east of 53W, making it to 35W by Sunday morning and remaining mainly north of 26N. By Monday, rough seas will expand farther southeastward, covering a majority of the eastern subtropical Atlantic. The highest seas of 14 to 16 ft are forecast to be confined to the north of 29N between 51W and 37W Sat afternoon through Sun morning. The significant wave heights will diminish below 12 ft Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone from 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ begins from this point and extends SW to 01N30W and to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 01N and west of 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate fresh SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail over most of the Gulf, with moderate to fresh ESE winds over the eastern Gulf. The strongest winds are noted in the NW and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that will move across the NE Gulf over the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will build in again over the area early next week. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Pockets of isolated, weak showers are seen across the north-central and SW Caribbean Sea. However, the dry environment suppresses the formation of deep convection. Fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong to gale force in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft, except for 8-12 ft in the strong to gale area. From the Windward Passage toward NE Jamaica, strong NE winds are likely occurring with seas around 6 ft. Fresh E winds are likely occurring in the lee of Cuba and in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Moderate trades and 3-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale- force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage through Sat evening. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras every night through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend, then slowly subside through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Significant swell event forecast for the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front sweeps across the subtropical Atlantic, extending from 31N47W to 25N55W to 23N70W, just north of the Turks and Caicos. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the boundary, with a concentrated area of convection near the tail end between 65W and 70W. High pressure is building in behind the front, allowing for fresh NE winds between 55W and 70W. Winds shift to a more easterly direction over the Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. Behind the northern portion of the front and east of 55W and north of 25N, fresh NNW winds are noted. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft at this time, with the rough swell expected to move in this weekend. A surface trough intercepting a ridge is allowing for another area of moderate to fresh ENE winds noted farther east, near and in the lee of the Canary Islands. Winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted from 22N to 31N and between 25W and 15W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. In the tropical Atlantic, from 00N to 20N, and west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 6-7 ft seas are found. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly southeastward today and reach along 22N-23N tonight before it weakens and dissipates Sat. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the NW Bahamas, and will begin to diminish W of 65W late tonight. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida tonight in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sat evening. This cold front will move southeast and become stationary from near 31N59W to 27N68W and to 26N73W by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. The fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front will shift eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N late Sun night. $$ Mora