000 AXNT20 KNHC 310020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast of NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the evening and early morning hours through early next week. Seas are expected to peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of a monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the African coast near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border to 09N17W. No significant convection is observed near the trough. An ITCZ is analyzed south of the equator. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the ITCZ from the Equator to 02N between 27W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1027 mb high over the Georgia-South Carolina border to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds dominates the eastern Gulf, while moderate with locally fresh SE winds prevail for the western Gulf, except for fresh to strong easterly winds off northern Yucatan Peninsula. Seas range from 4 to 6 feet across the western and south-central Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft for the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure is maintaining fresh SE winds over the NW Gulf. These winds will expand eastward through Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward in response to a weakening cold front that will move across the NE Gulf. The fresh winds will diminish late Fri night. Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward over the area early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. An easterly trade-wind pattern continues across the entire basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridge north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to between 8 and 9 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend, then slowly subside through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low at the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is observed up to 60 nm northwest and 100 nm southeast of this boundary. A surface trough near the Equator at 01N22W is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the Equator to 03N between 19W and 24W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the front west of 45W. The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from near Madeira across 31N35W to the southeast Bahamas. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are found up to 350 nm along either side of the ridge axis. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 30W. To the south and southwest, moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas at 6 to 7 ft exist from 04N to 20N/24N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the remainder of the basin. In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward through Fri, reaching along 22N/23N before it weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front is producing moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the front. These winds will increase to fresh to strong Fri, then begin to diminish Fri night. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida Fri night in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. this weekend. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N59W to 27N68W and to 26N73W by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night. The fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front will shift eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of the 31N late Sun night. $$ Forecaster Chan