000 AXNT20 KNHC 300902 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong NE-E trades over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast of NW Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the evening and early morning through early next week. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft each morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ is south of the equator. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 07N and E of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from south Florida to the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NW Gulf as well as off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh southeast winds over the NW Gulf will expand eastward through Fri as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Aside from the gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean waters...except gentle to moderate in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Seas over the western Caribbean are in the 2-4 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N62W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh winds are found E of the front to 40W, and N of 28N.Fresh to strong winds are found from 20N to 30N and east of 23W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the region of fresh winds N of 28N, and in the area of strong winds east of 23W. Seas re in the 3-4 ft range south of 25N and west of 65W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward through Fri, reaching along 22N/23N before it weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting tonight before diminishing Sat. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida Fri night in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the SE United States this weekend. This cold front is expected to move southeast, becoming stationary from near 31N59W to 26N73W by late Mon. The strong southwest winds are forecast to lift north of the area Sun. $$ AL