000 AXNT20 KNHC 300448 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over NW Colombia will continue support fresh to strong NE-E trades over the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Winds near the coast of NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force late night and early morning through early next week. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed east of 18W and from the Equator to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 25N88W, where it becomes a stationary front to 26N96W, then a dissipating stationary front to 19N95W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. Fresh to strong easterly winds are present north of the frontal system and west of 88W. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the waters described. Fresh N-NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are affecting the waters off Yucatan and Veracruz. Light to moderate winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate over the far southeastern Gulf Thu. Fresh to strong east winds north of the stationary front will become fresh southeast late tonight as the stationary front begins to weakens. These winds will expand eastward through Fri as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States. Fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. A few pockets of low-level moisture are traveling across the Caribbean Sea, generating light showers. A dry airmass dominates the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are prevalent in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras as depicted in the latest satellite-derived wind data. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the rest of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to SE Florida, producing some a few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the NW Bahamas area. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring behind the frontal boundary, along with seas of 4-8 ft. Moderate to locally strong SW winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data ahead of the front to 50W and north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge over the central and eastern portion of the basin. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds north of 21N and east of 20W. Seas in the waters described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In the forecast, the cold front extending from near Bermuda to south Florida will slowly move southeastward through Fri, reaching along 22N/23N before it weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night before diminishing Sat. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move southeast, becoming stationary from near 31N59W to 26N73W by late Mon. The strong southwest winds are forecast to lift north of the area Sun. $$ DELGADO