000 AXNT20 KNHC 291642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale- force late night and early morning starting this evening through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N east of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the central Florida peninsula westward to 25N95W, then southward to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-28N between 87W- 95W. Winds poleward of the front are fresh to strong, while moderate or weaker equatorward. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW and N central Gulf with 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from near South Florida to 23N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, then dissipate over the far southeastern Gulf Thu. Fresh northeast to east winds north of the front will gradually diminish to moderate speeds by late tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern United States by the end of the week. It will support moderate to fresh east-southeast winds across the basin, with fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Ridging north of the Caribbean along 24N combined with lower pressure over N South America is forcing generally fresh NE to E trades over the central and S Caribbean with strong NE winds just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occuring today over the Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the S central Caribbean, 5-8 ft over the SW and E Caribbean, and 2-5 ft over the NW Caribbean. An 0800 UTC Jason-3 altimeter observed seas up to 10 ft near 12N75W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the rest of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Sun night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N72W southwestward to the E central Florida peninsula. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N70W to 29N73W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 29N between 67W-77W. NW to N winds poleward of the front are fresh to strong, while winds ahead of the front to the pre-frontal trough are SW fresh to strong. Surface ridging extends from 31N30W to 24N60W to 25N77W. Trades equatorward of the ridge are generally moderate or weaker, though fresh to strong NE winds are present off of NW Africa north of 26N east of 18W. Seas are 8-9 ft in NW swell north of 29N between 25W-45W and north of 17N east of 25W. Elsewhere seas are 6-8 ft east of 60W and 4-6 ft west of 60W. In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward through Fri, at which time it will reach to along 22N/23N. It will weaken and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast north of 29N in the vicinity of the front today, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong northeast to northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night. Winds diminish during Sat as fresh to strong southwest winds develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to reach from near 31N77W to West Palm Beach, Florida late Sat night and weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 27N75W and weakening stationary to South Florida by late Sun. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ CWL/JA