000 AXNT20 KNHC 290602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W, to the Equator along 29W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 29W, to 02S35W, and 01S42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 13W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N, continuing inland in Mexico to 28N104W. A surface trough is about 100 nm to the southeast of the cold front between 83W and 86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line 27N80W 25N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 20N. VFR conditions are in much of the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf coast. The exception is LIFR conditions that are in the Florida Big Bend. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the cold front northward from 90W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are within 180 nm to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere from 90W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet, mostly from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere to the north of the cold front from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from the cold front southward from 90W westward. A cold front extending from The Florida Big Bend to near Tampico in Mexico will move SE and extend from near Tampa Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Wed, then weaken and dissipate over the far SE waters Thu. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the northwestern Gulf behind the front through early Wed. High pressure will build over the SE United States by the end of the week, and will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin, with fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, are within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 400 nm of the coast of Colombia and Panama. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere from the Greater Antilles southward. Moderate or slower wind speeds have been within 240 nm of the coast of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE winds have been within 220 nm of the coast of Honduras. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere from Jamaica westward and northwestward. The total amount of rainfall for the last three days for Guadeloupe has been close to one inch. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the week. Winds N of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night Thu night into Sun night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed morning. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge passes through 31N21W, to 26N37W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 27N47W, to a second 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N62W, to the Straits of Florida. A cold front is along 32N from Bermuda westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the 31N50W-to-the-Straits of Florida line northwestward. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet from 20N northward between 20W and 34W. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 11 feet elsewhere from 13N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 58W eastward. The sea heights were ranging from 4 to 7 feet from 20N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights were ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet from 20N southward from 20W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet within a 150 nm radius of the second 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N62W. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 58W westward. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast this evening, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ mt/al